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The Future Is Not What It Used To Be

March 28th, 2012 by Steve Nelson

"The future is not what it used to be." True, sometimes it's better and sometimes it's not. Much of what we do for our clients is predict this quarter, this year, and three or so years out, and do it all simultaneously.

The time interval between fantastic predictions and reality really is contracting, and that can be dizzying. But it's also good too look back at "retro-futurism" to see how the predictions have fared.

Sometimes things have worked out for the better:


Book readers: 1935 vs 2012 - click to enlarge

Sometimes the predictions have been fairly accurate:


Medical technology: 1925 vs 2012 - click to enlarge

But sometimes, not so much. I remember fantastic predictions of hospitals in the city of the future, maybe even in space! Despite amazing advancements in medical technology, there is something about the ambience of going down to the Laser Center in the basement of Building H — without so much as a parking space for my flying car — that's a bit of a disappointment:


Medical clinics: 1958 vs 2012 - click to enlarge

But if it gives me an excuse to encourage you to support your local colonoscopist, so be it.

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Measuring Social Media ROI

March 27th, 2012 by Steve Nelson

A spike in traffic - must be social media ROI!
I went to a lunch 'n learn last week sponsored by Molly Crawley at Med Ad Agency. Molly had asked me to think about the topic of social media return on investment (ROI). My first thought was there is not a one-size-fits-all model for considering social media ROI, and it would be unwise to oversimplify. When I hear clients balk at participating in social media platforms until or unless they can apply a highly accurate ROI model, I feel that they are missing an important consideration.

15 years ago or so some clients questioned whether they needed a website, or could justify the ROI. But the internet has become such a part of the operational and communications infrastructure of any company that the consideration is different. For most companies, if you don’t have a website, you don’t exist.

Social media is becoming an integral part of that infrastructure.

Infrastucture ROI models are different from calculating the return on a marketing campaign. Asking the ROI on an customer event you might plan at your headquarters is one thing. But you need a different model that covers having a headquarters in the first place, where it is located, what color it is painted, what the phone system is, who is in the mail room.  Have you calculated the ROI on your phone system lately?

It’s well and good to come up with plausable, testable and refinable models such as ROI. Develop a model, a hypothesis, and go from there. But you need to make sure that you are looking at all the different levels of necessity and return that can be covered by that model. Developing an infrastructure ROI model for social media can be instructive, but should not be the deciding factor for participation.

First of all, assume that social presence is required now to be included in the online space. Minimally this includes profile information that can be indexed, found, referenced and shared. Search engines are increasingly factoring this presence into their search results. For many consumers, if you aren’t in the search results you don’t exist. Beyond this, as I pointed out in my post on the Zero Moment of Truth, validation of your presence in the social space may also make or break the attraction of your customers. A survey I did for a client seven years ago showed that the existence of an independent blog community for their products and company increased the trust in that company and its own communications. Accelerate to today, and that community:trust ratio is even more critical.

Of course, you can still measure ROI on social media marketing campaigns, but this is a much different consideration from the initial choice to participate. As lunch 'n learn guest speaker Colin Cook of Thimble River Analytics pointed out, old-school linear conversion funnels have become much more convoluted with the feedback loops of social media. You can still use simple measurements such as click-throughs to desired conversion events with links that are carried through the social media. But you also want to develop models of how these links and the messages that carry them are uniquely spread and validated through networks of influence and the platforms that enable them.

How do you do that? First, you develop your model of how this influence might plausibly work, within and across online and social platforms. Once you have a model, you can use the platform-specific measurement systems, such as Facebook Insights; or general purpose measurement systems, such as Google Analytics, Webtrends or Adobe's Omniture; or you can look at the data requirements of your specific social proliferation model, and find many vendors that offer specialized measurement systems.

So embrace the infrastructure of social media as a given, model your general presence, model your social campaigns, and find the right tools to test and learn from your models.

Download the free Social Media Workbook from AP42

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2012 San Francisco Addy Awards

March 8th, 2012 by Imelda Alejandrino

It's been at least 6 years since I've been to the Addy Awards, conducted by the American Advertising Federation. It was held at SFMOMA, one of my favorite places to go in San Francisco. Back in the day, there used to be more attendees and a buzz that made you feel proud to be in the industry.  But I guess the economy hasn't quite bounced back - or maybe everyone is just waiting for a tweet instead of attending in person.

It doesn't matter. Because what I CAN tell you is that there's a new breed of creatives out there – inspirational, passionate and so connected to the internet.

Congratulations to Bob Hoffman, Ad Person of the Year, and to Venables Bell & Partners for Best In Show for Intel's "The Chase."

My favorite part of the evening was the Student Work Awards. If these students are the baseline for what creative looks like today, I can't wait to see what they do once they get a job. Congratulations to all!

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One Question Every Creative Brief Should Have

March 8th, 2012 by Steve Nelson

AP42 creative brief

My colleague John Faville once offered, "A brief should be."  I thought of that as I was reading WOW Branding's "Logo Savvy",  where they suggest replacing the traditional creative brief in favor of ten evocative words. That is brief, and I think I'll give it a try. Hey, I'm a scientist at heart.

Until then, here's a question I suggest gets added to every creative brief template.

For existing products/services/brands/companies:

"What is the best example from your firsthand experience, from a customer you've actually talked to, that exemplifies the highest potential of your product or service in actual use." 

For new products/services/brands/companies:

"Give me the best example from your firsthand experience, from a customer you've actually talked to, of their articulated need for which your product or service is the perfect solution."

Picking the ultimate example, either of how your product has actually been used, or of an expressed need that your new product is meant to solve is important. It places the high-water mark for success, at least in your known universe. (If the gods favor you, your product will be used in even more ways than you can currently imagine!). I don't want a typical example - there are plenty of those. I want the best.

And I don't want a theoretical or hypothetical example: "It's for the busy executive getting off a plane and grabbing breakfast in one hand with their iPhone in the other, and they've now run out of hands." No, tell me about a customer you talked to, who actually used your product (if you have one) or relayed a real experience that would lead her to your product or service (if you're developing or just rolling it out.)

This keeps it real. When I was directing a group of product marketers, I was always challenging them to move away from the abstract and get concrete. No talk of "the dealers' shelves" would last very long before we'd get in the car and go find a real dealer and real shelves.  The same consideration should go into your brief. Not to design the whole campaign or product around n=1, but to know, for now, the apex of your current reality.

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